According to the IPCC report, by century's end, CMIP5 models project the greatest warming in the Central America region in the June, July, and August months of the year. From October to March, it is projected to precipitate less in northern Central America. Several phenomena that affects the Central America region include the ITCZ, NAMS, ENSO, and TCs. This annual cycle is due to the air-sea interactions over the Western Hemisphere warm pool in the north Pacific and the Intra Americas seas. Precipitation trends must be carefully interpreted because of inter-decadal climate variations can be large in the Central America region. Prolonged dry/wet periods are related to decadal variability of the adjacent Pacific and Atlantic and the intensity of easterlies over a specific region. From 1950-2000 there were increased easterlies over Puerto Rico which caused a disruption of inland moisture convergence which led to a huge precipitation decrease.
Going into further detail, I will talk about the future climate in Central America. There have been an increased trend in precipitation and temperature in Central America. While there have been more precipitation, that has led to more landslides and flash floods. There have also been projections that shows by the year 2100, there will be an increase in temperature of about 1.6C to 4.0C in Central America. It has also been proven that land use change contributes significantly towards environmental degradation. Deforestation and land degradation are attributed mainly to increased agriculture. Renewable energy based on biomass has a potential impact on lan use change and deforestation and could be affected by climate change. Conversion of natural ecosystems is the main cause of biodiversity and ecosystem loss in Central America, and it is a driver of anthropogenic climate change. There have also been changes in weather and climatic patterns which are negatively affecting human health in Central America by increasing morbidity, mortality, and disabilities. Climate-related drivers are associated with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases.
The most interesting threat that I've found has to deal with the food production systems and food security in Central America and South America. Due to the increasing global demand for food and biofuels, Central America and South America have increased their agricultural production mainly with the expansion of planted areas and this trend is expected to continue in the future. Ecosystems are being affected in isolation by climate change and land use changes. An alarming prediction that I've read is that by the end of the 21st century, South America could lose between 1 and 21% of its arable land due to climate change and population growth. In Southeast South America, there have been significant increases in precipitation and wetter soil conditions during the 20th century which have benefited summer crops and pastures productivity. Future climate scenarios implications to food production and food security shows a very large range of uncertainty across multiple models and scenarios. One uncertainty is related to the effect of CO2 on plant physiology. A lot of crops can respond with an increasing productivity as a result of higher growth rates and better water use efficiency. On the flip side, food quality could decrease as a result of higher sugar contents in grain and fruits, and decreases in the protein content in cereals and legumes. One approach to adapting to future climate change is by assisting people to cope with current climate variability.
